Prediction data
Las Vegas · KLAS hourly model runs, with Kalshi settlement results added when available.
| Date | Run time (local) | Forecast | Most likely bucket | Model | Ask | Edge | Actual | Error | Brier | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | 2 AM | 74.2°F | 74° to 75° | 54.9% | 79¢ | -24.1% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-08 | 1 AM | 70.5°F | 71° or below | 78.9% | 2¢ | +76.9% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 11 PM | 75.2°F | 74° to 75° | 45.4% | 100¢ | -54.6% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 10 PM | 74.9°F | 74° to 75° | 52.0% | 100¢ | -48.0% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 9 PM | 75.0°F | 74° to 75° | 51.5% | 100¢ | -48.5% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 8 PM | 75.4°F | 74° to 75° | 49.5% | 100¢ | -50.5% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 7 PM | 76.3°F | 76° to 77° | 70.6% | 1¢ | +69.6% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 6 PM | 75.0°F | 74° to 75° | 71.4% | 100¢ | -28.6% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 5 PM | 75.5°F | 76° to 77° | 50.3% | 1¢ | +49.3% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 4 PM | 74.6°F | 74° to 75° | 82.1% | 100¢ | -17.9% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 3 PM | 74.6°F | 74° to 75° | 81.6% | 99¢ | -17.4% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 2 PM | 74.6°F | 74° to 75° | 67.2% | 91¢ | -23.8% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 1 PM | 74.4°F | 74° to 75° | 60.6% | 73¢ | -12.4% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 12 PM | 74.0°F | 74° to 75° | 51.7% | 38¢ | +13.7% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 11 AM | 74.3°F | 74° to 75° | 54.5% | 46¢ | +8.5% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 10 AM | 74.4°F | 74° to 75° | 53.8% | 67¢ | -13.2% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 9 AM | 74.6°F | 74° to 75° | 54.1% | 62¢ | -7.9% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 7 AM | 74.8°F | 74° to 75° | 52.9% | 76¢ | -23.1% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 6 AM | 74.9°F | 74° to 75° | 50.7% | 78¢ | -27.3% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 5 AM | 75.4°F | 74° to 75° | 45.3% | 79¢ | -33.7% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 4 AM | 75.2°F | 74° to 75° | 48.1% | 78¢ | -29.9% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 3 AM | 75.4°F | 74° to 75° | 45.6% | 74¢ | -28.4% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 1 AM | 71.1°F | 71° or below | 62.0% | 1¢ | +61.0% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 11 PM | 72.6°F | 73° to 74° | 49.4% | 1¢ | +48.4% | 72°F | -0.6°F | 0.817 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 10 PM | 72.6°F | 73° to 74° | 50.9% | 1¢ | +49.9% | 72°F | -0.6°F | 0.818 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 9 PM | 73.1°F | 73° to 74° | 52.0% | 1¢ | +51.0% | 72°F | -1.1°F | 0.911 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 8 PM | 73.1°F | 73° to 74° | 60.1% | 1¢ | +59.1% | 72°F | -1.1°F | 0.954 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 7 PM | 72.9°F | 73° to 74° | 65.9% | 1¢ | +64.9% | 72°F | -0.9°F | 0.928 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 6 PM | 73.0°F | 73° to 74° | 71.4% | 1¢ | +70.4% | 72°F | -1.0°F | 1.084 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 5 PM | 73.3°F | 73° to 74° | 76.9% | 1¢ | +75.9% | 72°F | -1.3°F | 1.302 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 4 PM | 73.2°F | 73° to 74° | 73.7% | 1¢ | +72.7% | 72°F | -1.2°F | 1.197 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 3 PM | 72.8°F | 73° to 74° | 64.2% | 23¢ | +41.2% | 72°F | -0.8°F | 0.860 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 2 PM | 73.1°F | 73° to 74° | 66.1% | 36¢ | +30.1% | 72°F | -1.1°F | 1.015 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 1 PM | 72.9°F | 73° to 74° | 56.0% | 41¢ | +15.0% | 72°F | -0.9°F | 0.750 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 12 PM | 72.8°F | 73° to 74° | 48.4% | 32¢ | +16.4% | 72°F | -0.8°F | 0.631 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 11 AM | 73.2°F | 73° to 74° | 54.0% | 38¢ | +16.0% | 72°F | -1.2°F | 0.843 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 10 AM | 73.0°F | 73° to 74° | 51.3% | 35¢ | +16.3% | 72°F | -1.0°F | 0.752 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 9 AM | 73.1°F | 73° to 74° | 51.0% | 39¢ | +12.0% | 72°F | -1.1°F | 0.780 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 8 AM | 72.5°F | 71° to 72° | 41.5% | 59¢ | -17.5% | 72°F | -0.5°F | 0.527 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 7 AM | 72.7°F | 73° to 74° | 45.6% | 43¢ | +2.6% | 72°F | -0.7°F | 0.584 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 6 AM | 72.9°F | 73° to 74° | 48.1% | 48¢ | +0.1% | 72°F | -0.9°F | 0.672 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 5 AM | 72.9°F | 73° to 74° | 49.1% | 48¢ | +1.1% | 72°F | -0.9°F | 0.682 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 3 AM | 73.1°F | 73° to 74° | 51.8% | 50¢ | +1.8% | 72°F | -1.1°F | 0.761 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 2 AM | 72.7°F | 73° to 74° | 46.0% | 51¢ | -5.0% | 72°F | -0.7°F | 0.593 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 1 AM | 69.3°F | 70° or below | 83.6% | 3¢ | +80.6% | 72°F | +2.7°F | 1.405 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 11 PM | 69.1°F | 69° to 70° | 61.0% | 100¢ | -39.0% | 69°F | -0.1°F | 0.258 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 10 PM | 69.1°F | 69° to 70° | 63.8% | 100¢ | -36.2% | 69°F | -0.1°F | 0.228 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 9 PM | 69.9°F | 69° to 70° | 53.1% | 100¢ | -46.9% | 69°F | -0.9°F | 0.372 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 8 PM | 70.9°F | 71° to 72° | 53.1% | 1¢ | +52.1% | 69°F | -1.9°F | 0.719 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 7 PM | 70.3°F | 69° to 70° | 56.0% | 100¢ | -44.0% | 69°F | -1.3°F | 0.377 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 6 PM | 69.6°F | 69° to 70° | 82.5% | 100¢ | -17.5% | 69°F | -0.6°F | 0.061 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 5 PM | 69.9°F | 69° to 70° | 75.6% | 100¢ | -24.4% | 69°F | -0.9°F | 0.118 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 4 PM | 69.1°F | 69° to 70° | 92.8% | 100¢ | -7.2% | 69°F | -0.1°F | 0.010 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 3 PM | 69.2°F | 69° to 70° | 73.1% | 99¢ | -25.9% | 69°F | -0.2°F | 0.117 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 2 PM | 68.7°F | 69° to 70° | 53.6% | 70¢ | -16.4% | 69°F | +0.3°F | 0.393 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 1 PM | 68.6°F | 69° to 70° | 48.3% | 75¢ | -26.7% | 69°F | +0.4°F | 0.452 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 12 PM | 69.0°F | 69° to 70° | 51.7% | 71¢ | -19.3% | 69°F | -0.0°F | 0.354 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 11 AM | 69.0°F | 69° to 70° | 51.7% | 77¢ | -25.3% | 69°F | -0.0°F | 0.354 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 10 AM | 69.0°F | 69° to 70° | 51.1% | 82¢ | -30.9% | 69°F | -0.0°F | 0.358 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 9 AM | 69.0°F | 69° to 70° | 49.4% | 81¢ | -31.6% | 69°F | +0.0°F | 0.382 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 8 AM | 68.9°F | 69° to 70° | 47.3% | 80¢ | -32.7% | 69°F | +0.1°F | 0.410 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 7 AM | 68.9°F | 69° to 70° | 49.0% | 79¢ | -30.0% | 69°F | +0.1°F | 0.394 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 6 AM | 69.1°F | 69° to 70° | 50.3% | 74¢ | -23.7% | 69°F | -0.1°F | 0.362 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 5 AM | 69.3°F | 69° to 70° | 52.5% | 70¢ | -17.5% | 69°F | -0.3°F | 0.328 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 4 AM | 69.2°F | 69° to 70° | 52.7% | 77¢ | -24.3% | 69°F | -0.2°F | 0.328 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 3 AM | 69.4°F | 69° to 70° | 54.2% | 77¢ | -22.8% | 69°F | -0.4°F | 0.304 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 2 AM | 69.1°F | 69° to 70° | 51.8% | 81¢ | -29.2% | 69°F | -0.1°F | 0.343 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 1 AM | 65.5°F | 66° or below | 80.0% | 1¢ | +79.0% | 69°F | +3.5°F | 1.665 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 11 PM | 70.1°F | 69° to 70° | 46.8% | 100¢ | -53.2% | 69°F | -1.1°F | 0.449 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 10 PM | 70.4°F | 69° to 70° | 42.6% | 100¢ | -57.4% | 69°F | -1.4°F | 0.520 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 9 PM | 71.3°F | 71° to 72° | 45.9% | 1¢ | +44.9% | 69°F | -2.3°F | 0.764 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 8 PM | 71.6°F | 71° to 72° | 56.5% | 1¢ | +55.5% | 69°F | -2.6°F | 1.040 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 7 PM | 71.6°F | 71° to 72° | 71.9% | 1¢ | +70.9% | 69°F | -2.6°F | 1.302 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 6 PM | 71.0°F | 71° to 72° | 68.0% | 1¢ | +67.0% | 69°F | -2.0°F | 0.975 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 5 PM | 70.9°F | 71° to 72° | 64.8% | 1¢ | +63.8% | 69°F | -1.9°F | 0.874 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 4 PM | 70.2°F | 69° to 70° | 61.7% | 100¢ | -38.3% | 69°F | -1.2°F | 0.289 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 3 PM | 69.8°F | 69° to 70° | 76.1% | 96¢ | -19.9% | 69°F | -0.8°F | 0.113 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 2 PM | 70.1°F | 69° to 70° | 61.7% | 86¢ | -24.3% | 69°F | -1.1°F | 0.283 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 1 PM | 70.2°F | 69° to 70° | 55.1% | 86¢ | -30.9% | 69°F | -1.2°F | 0.377 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 12 PM | 70.0°F | 69° to 70° | 51.7% | 82¢ | -30.3% | 69°F | -1.0°F | 0.355 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 11 AM | 70.0°F | 69° to 70° | 51.3% | 89¢ | -37.7% | 69°F | -1.0°F | 0.361 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 10 AM | 69.6°F | 69° to 70° | 53.1% | 84¢ | -30.9% | 69°F | -0.6°F | 0.317 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 9 AM | 69.5°F | 69° to 70° | 51.9% | 72¢ | -20.1% | 69°F | -0.5°F | 0.331 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 8 AM | 69.3°F | 69° to 70° | 49.5% | 66¢ | -16.5% | 69°F | -0.3°F | 0.364 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 7 AM | 69.4°F | 69° to 70° | 52.6% | 61¢ | -8.4% | 69°F | -0.4°F | 0.324 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 6 AM | 69.5°F | 69° to 70° | 51.5% | 66¢ | -14.5% | 69°F | -0.5°F | 0.337 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 5 AM | 69.5°F | 69° to 70° | 52.7% | 68¢ | -15.3% | 69°F | -0.5°F | 0.322 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 4 AM | 69.6°F | 69° to 70° | 53.2% | 63¢ | -9.8% | 69°F | -0.6°F | 0.316 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 3 AM | 69.7°F | 69° to 70° | 53.4% | 62¢ | -8.6% | 69°F | -0.7°F | 0.317 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 10 PM | 67.6°F | 68° to 69° | 50.4% | 1¢ | +49.4% | 67°F | -0.6°F | 0.814 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 9 PM | 68.1°F | 68° to 69° | 51.8% | 1¢ | +50.8% | 67°F | -1.1°F | 0.913 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 8 PM | 68.8°F | 68° to 69° | 57.2% | 1¢ | +56.2% | 67°F | -1.8°F | 1.169 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 7 PM | 67.8°F | 68° to 69° | 65.4% | 1¢ | +64.4% | 67°F | -0.8°F | 0.910 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 6 PM | 67.8°F | 68° to 69° | 66.5% | 1¢ | +65.5% | 67°F | -0.8°F | 0.918 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 5 PM | 68.0°F | 68° to 69° | 72.2% | 1¢ | +71.2% | 67°F | -1.0°F | 1.103 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 4 PM | 67.1°F | 66° to 67° | 55.0% | 99¢ | -44.0% | 67°F | -0.1°F | 0.400 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 3 PM | 67.1°F | 66° to 67° | 65.5% | 93¢ | -27.5% | 67°F | -0.1°F | 0.235 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 2 PM | 67.0°F | 66° to 67° | 66.8% | 86¢ | -19.2% | 67°F | +0.0°F | 0.215 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 12 PM | 66.5°F | 66° to 67° | 54.1% | 71¢ | -16.9% | 67°F | +0.5°F | 0.310 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 11 AM | 66.6°F | 66° to 67° | 53.1% | 65¢ | -11.9% | 67°F | +0.4°F | 0.322 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 8 AM | 66.5°F | 66° to 67° | 49.5% | 51¢ | -1.5% | 67°F | +0.5°F | 0.371 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 7 AM | 66.8°F | 66° to 67° | 51.5% | 51¢ | +0.5% | 67°F | +0.2°F | 0.345 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 6 AM | 67.1°F | 66° to 67° | 47.1% | 60¢ | -12.9% | 67°F | -0.1°F | 0.421 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 5 AM | 66.9°F | 66° to 67° | 50.4% | 61¢ | -10.6% | 67°F | +0.1°F | 0.367 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 4 AM | 66.8°F | 66° to 67° | 51.9% | 61¢ | -9.1% | 67°F | +0.2°F | 0.340 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 3 AM | 67.2°F | 66° to 67° | 47.7% | 60¢ | -12.3% | 67°F | -0.2°F | 0.424 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 2 AM | 66.8°F | 66° to 67° | 48.9% | 61¢ | -12.1% | 67°F | +0.2°F | 0.379 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 1 AM | 63.3°F | 65° or below | 96.7% | 9¢ | +87.7% | 67°F | +3.7°F | 1.871 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 11 PM | 70.1°F | 69° to 70° | 46.0% | 100¢ | -54.0% | 69°F | -1.1°F | 0.459 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 10 PM | 71.1°F | 71° to 72° | 43.0% | 1¢ | +42.0% | 69°F | -2.1°F | 0.702 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 9 PM | 71.7°F | 71° to 72° | 45.3% | 1¢ | +44.3% | 69°F | -2.7°F | 0.896 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 8 PM | 72.6°F | 73° to 74° | 48.5% | 1¢ | +47.5% | 69°F | -3.6°F | 1.338 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 7 PM | 73.1°F | 73° to 74° | 67.4% | 1¢ | +66.4% | 69°F | -4.1°F | 1.523 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 6 PM | 71.1°F | 71° to 72° | 72.3% | 1¢ | +71.3% | 69°F | -2.1°F | 1.115 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 5 PM | 70.9°F | 71° to 72° | 66.2% | 1¢ | +65.2% | 69°F | -1.9°F | 0.919 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 4 PM | 69.7°F | 69° to 70° | 78.1% | 100¢ | -21.9% | 69°F | -0.7°F | 0.095 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 3 PM | 69.3°F | 69° to 70° | 88.7% | 97¢ | -8.3% | 69°F | -0.3°F | 0.026 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 2 PM | 69.5°F | 69° to 70° | 61.9% | 94¢ | -32.1% | 69°F | -0.5°F | 0.216 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 1 PM | 69.2°F | 69° to 70° | 62.6% | 95¢ | -32.4% | 69°F | -0.2°F | 0.210 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 12 PM | 69.2°F | 69° to 70° | 54.0% | 90¢ | -36.0% | 69°F | -0.2°F | 0.319 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 11 AM | 68.9°F | 69° to 70° | 50.2% | 82¢ | -31.8% | 69°F | +0.1°F | 0.379 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 10 AM | 68.9°F | 69° to 70° | 48.9% | 80¢ | -31.1% | 69°F | +0.1°F | 0.396 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 9 AM | 68.9°F | 69° to 70° | 47.0% | 77¢ | -30.0% | 69°F | +0.1°F | 0.421 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 8 AM | 68.9°F | 69° to 70° | 47.0% | 77¢ | -30.0% | 69°F | +0.1°F | 0.421 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 7 AM | 69.4°F | 69° to 70° | 54.3% | 77¢ | -22.7% | 69°F | -0.4°F | 0.302 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 6 AM | 69.6°F | 69° to 70° | 52.5% | 71¢ | -18.5% | 69°F | -0.6°F | 0.325 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 5 AM | 69.7°F | 69° to 70° | 53.7% | 71¢ | -17.3% | 69°F | -0.7°F | 0.313 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 4 AM | 70.1°F | 69° to 70° | 50.4% | 70¢ | -19.6% | 69°F | -1.1°F | 0.380 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 3 AM | 69.6°F | 69° to 70° | 55.4% | 69¢ | -13.6% | 69°F | -0.6°F | 0.289 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 2 AM | 68.8°F | 69° to 70° | 36.1% | 68¢ | -31.9% | 69°F | +0.2°F | 0.552 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 1 AM | 65.0°F | 66° or below | 89.7% | 1¢ | +88.7% | 69°F | +4.0°F | 1.811 | Inputs |