Prediction data
Los Angeles · KLAX hourly model runs, with Kalshi settlement results added when available.
| Date | Run time (local) | Forecast | Most likely bucket | Model | Ask | Edge | Actual | Error | Brier | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | 2 AM | 85.8°F | 85° to 86° | 37.8% | 29¢ | +8.8% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-08 | 1 AM | 81.8°F | 82° or below | 61.7% | 1¢ | +60.7% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 11 PM | 90.3°F | 87° or above | 94.8% | 1¢ | +93.8% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 10 PM | 88.9°F | 87° or above | 86.8% | 1¢ | +85.8% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 9 PM | 88.4°F | 87° or above | 82.7% | 1¢ | +81.7% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 8 PM | 89.0°F | 87° or above | 90.4% | 1¢ | +89.4% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 7 PM | 87.0°F | 87° or above | 65.7% | 1¢ | +64.7% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 6 PM | 86.4°F | 87° or above | 50.9% | 1¢ | +49.9% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 5 PM | 86.1°F | 85° to 86° | 51.6% | 100¢ | -48.4% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 4 PM | 85.6°F | 85° to 86° | 62.1% | 100¢ | -37.9% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 3 PM | 84.9°F | 85° to 86° | 56.3% | 100¢ | -43.7% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 2 PM | 85.4°F | 85° to 86° | 51.2% | 100¢ | -48.8% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 1 PM | 85.0°F | 85° to 86° | 46.1% | 95¢ | -48.9% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 12 PM | 85.3°F | 85° to 86° | 35.9% | 29¢ | +6.9% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 11 AM | 85.0°F | 87° or above | 31.2% | 3¢ | +28.2% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 10 AM | 85.9°F | 87° or above | 45.2% | 5¢ | +40.2% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 9 AM | 85.9°F | 87° or above | 42.9% | 12¢ | +30.9% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 8 AM | 85.8°F | 87° or above | 42.3% | 7¢ | +35.3% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 6 AM | 85.5°F | 87° or above | 38.7% | 19¢ | +19.7% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 5 AM | 85.5°F | 87° or above | 39.0% | 15¢ | +24.0% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 4 AM | 85.8°F | 87° or above | 41.8% | 16¢ | +25.8% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 3 AM | 85.8°F | 87° or above | 42.1% | 12¢ | +30.1% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 2 AM | 84.7°F | 85° to 86° | 35.5% | 55¢ | -19.5% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 1 AM | 80.7°F | 81° to 82° | 30.4% | 2¢ | +28.4% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 11 PM | 84.8°F | 85° or above | 66.2% | 1¢ | +65.2% | 83°F | -1.8°F | 0.878 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 10 PM | 84.4°F | 85° or above | 62.6% | 1¢ | +61.6% | 83°F | -1.4°F | 0.784 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 9 PM | 84.5°F | 85° or above | 61.9% | 1¢ | +60.9% | 83°F | -1.5°F | 0.766 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 8 PM | 85.1°F | 85° or above | 67.7% | 1¢ | +66.7% | 83°F | -2.1°F | 0.918 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 7 PM | 83.5°F | 83° to 84° | 62.1% | 100¢ | -37.9% | 83°F | -0.5°F | 0.288 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 6 PM | 83.3°F | 83° to 84° | 73.9% | 100¢ | -26.1% | 83°F | -0.3°F | 0.136 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 5 PM | 83.6°F | 83° to 84° | 60.7% | 100¢ | -39.3% | 83°F | -0.6°F | 0.309 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 4 PM | 82.9°F | 83° to 84° | 72.6% | 100¢ | -27.4% | 83°F | +0.1°F | 0.151 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 3 PM | 83.6°F | 83° to 84° | 65.2% | 100¢ | -34.8% | 83°F | -0.6°F | 0.243 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 2 PM | 83.9°F | 83° to 84° | 54.9% | 100¢ | -45.1% | 83°F | -0.9°F | 0.407 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 12 PM | 81.8°F | 81° to 82° | 44.9% | 30¢ | +14.9% | 83°F | +1.2°F | 0.653 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 10 AM | 81.8°F | 81° to 82° | 24.6% | 59¢ | -34.4% | 83°F | +1.2°F | 0.775 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 9 AM | 82.0°F | 85° or above | 23.6% | 4¢ | +19.6% | 83°F | +1.0°F | 0.783 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 8 AM | 82.0°F | 85° or above | 23.8% | 2¢ | +21.8% | 83°F | +1.0°F | 0.786 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 7 AM | 82.1°F | 85° or above | 25.1% | 3¢ | +22.1% | 83°F | +0.9°F | 0.788 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 6 AM | 82.1°F | 85° or above | 25.1% | 3¢ | +22.1% | 83°F | +0.9°F | 0.790 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 5 AM | 82.0°F | 85° or above | 24.4% | 3¢ | +21.4% | 83°F | +1.0°F | 0.791 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 4 AM | 82.2°F | 85° or above | 26.0% | 5¢ | +21.0% | 83°F | +0.8°F | 0.786 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 3 AM | 82.3°F | 85° or above | 27.0% | 6¢ | +21.0% | 83°F | +0.7°F | 0.788 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 2 AM | 81.3°F | 81° to 82° | 38.1% | 47¢ | -8.9% | 83°F | +1.7°F | 0.834 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 1 AM | 77.3°F | 76° or below | 36.7% | 1¢ | +35.7% | 83°F | +5.7°F | 1.260 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 11 PM | 79.3°F | 79° to 80° | 40.6% | 1¢ | +39.6% | 78°F | -1.3°F | 0.933 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 10 PM | 79.9°F | 79° to 80° | 36.3% | 1¢ | +35.3% | 78°F | -1.9°F | 0.999 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 9 PM | 79.6°F | 79° to 80° | 40.0% | 1¢ | +39.0% | 78°F | -1.6°F | 0.972 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 8 PM | 79.6°F | 79° to 80° | 44.3% | 1¢ | +43.3% | 78°F | -1.6°F | 0.988 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 7 PM | 78.1°F | 79° to 80° | 51.3% | 1¢ | +50.3% | 78°F | -0.1°F | 0.682 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 6 PM | 78.1°F | 79° to 80° | 51.5% | 1¢ | +50.5% | 78°F | -0.1°F | 0.602 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 5 PM | 78.7°F | 79° to 80° | 52.8% | 1¢ | +51.8% | 78°F | -0.7°F | 0.829 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 4 PM | 78.1°F | 79° to 80° | 51.6% | 1¢ | +50.6% | 78°F | -0.1°F | 0.664 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 3 PM | 78.1°F | 79° to 80° | 51.7% | 1¢ | +50.7% | 78°F | -0.1°F | 0.636 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 2 PM | 78.2°F | 79° to 80° | 51.9% | 7¢ | +44.9% | 78°F | -0.2°F | 0.708 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 1 PM | 78.3°F | 79° to 80° | 47.5% | 18¢ | +29.5% | 78°F | -0.3°F | 0.793 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 12 PM | 78.9°F | 79° to 80° | 42.5% | 69¢ | -26.5% | 78°F | -0.9°F | 0.883 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 11 AM | 77.7°F | 77° to 78° | 35.4% | 53¢ | -17.6% | 78°F | +0.3°F | 0.549 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 10 AM | 77.6°F | 77° to 78° | 23.8% | 62¢ | -38.2% | 78°F | +0.4°F | 0.707 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 9 AM | 78.0°F | 77° to 78° | 22.2% | 59¢ | -36.8% | 78°F | -0.0°F | 0.732 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 8 AM | 77.9°F | 77° to 78° | 21.9% | 55¢ | -33.1% | 78°F | +0.1°F | 0.739 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 7 AM | 77.8°F | 77° to 78° | 21.6% | 62¢ | -40.4% | 78°F | +0.2°F | 0.744 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 6 AM | 78.2°F | 77° to 78° | 21.2% | 47¢ | -25.8% | 78°F | -0.2°F | 0.749 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 5 AM | 78.0°F | 77° to 78° | 21.4% | 44¢ | -22.6% | 78°F | -0.0°F | 0.746 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 4 AM | 76.7°F | 74° or below | 27.1% | 1¢ | +26.1% | 78°F | +1.3°F | 0.775 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 3 AM | 76.6°F | 74° or below | 27.9% | 1¢ | +26.9% | 78°F | +1.4°F | 0.780 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 2 AM | 75.8°F | 75° to 76° | 37.9% | 7¢ | +30.9% | 78°F | +2.2°F | 0.744 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 1 AM | 72.0°F | 74° or below | 85.0% | 1¢ | +84.0% | 78°F | +6.0°F | 1.682 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 11 PM | 75.0°F | 75° to 76° | 53.1% | 100¢ | -46.9% | 75°F | -0.0°F | 0.350 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 10 PM | 75.0°F | 75° to 76° | 51.9% | 100¢ | -48.1% | 75°F | -0.0°F | 0.364 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 9 PM | 75.0°F | 75° to 76° | 55.0% | 100¢ | -45.0% | 75°F | -0.0°F | 0.327 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 8 PM | 75.0°F | 75° to 76° | 61.6% | 100¢ | -38.4% | 75°F | -0.0°F | 0.251 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 7 PM | 75.0°F | 75° to 76° | 69.5% | 100¢ | -30.5% | 75°F | -0.0°F | 0.169 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 6 PM | 75.0°F | 75° to 76° | 78.2% | 100¢ | -21.8% | 75°F | -0.0°F | 0.091 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 5 PM | 75.0°F | 75° to 76° | 68.5% | 100¢ | -31.5% | 75°F | -0.0°F | 0.179 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 4 PM | 75.0°F | 75° to 76° | 71.0% | 100¢ | -29.0% | 75°F | -0.0°F | 0.155 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 3 PM | 73.7°F | 73° to 74° | 61.2% | 1¢ | +60.2% | 75°F | +1.3°F | 0.807 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 2 PM | 74.6°F | 75° to 76° | 43.7% | 100¢ | -56.3% | 75°F | +0.4°F | 0.508 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 1 PM | 74.6°F | 75° to 76° | 38.9% | 99¢ | -60.1% | 75°F | +0.4°F | 0.548 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 12 PM | 75.5°F | 75° to 76° | 32.5% | 23¢ | +9.5% | 75°F | -0.5°F | 0.593 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 11 AM | 75.5°F | 75° to 76° | 28.5% | 58¢ | -29.5% | 75°F | -0.5°F | 0.649 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 10 AM | 75.8°F | 75° to 76° | 23.7% | 68¢ | -44.3% | 75°F | -0.8°F | 0.726 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 8 AM | 76.5°F | 79° or above | 28.7% | 1¢ | +27.7% | 75°F | -1.5°F | 0.784 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 7 AM | 76.5°F | 79° or above | 29.4% | 1¢ | +28.4% | 75°F | -1.5°F | 0.792 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 6 AM | 76.4°F | 79° or above | 28.0% | 1¢ | +27.0% | 75°F | -1.4°F | 0.784 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 5 AM | 76.3°F | 79° or above | 28.0% | 1¢ | +27.0% | 75°F | -1.3°F | 0.783 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 4 AM | 76.5°F | 79° or above | 28.9% | 1¢ | +27.9% | 75°F | -1.5°F | 0.788 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 3 AM | 76.2°F | 79° or above | 26.2% | 1¢ | +25.2% | 75°F | -1.2°F | 0.772 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 10 PM | 74.1°F | 73° to 74° | 40.0% | 100¢ | -60.0% | 73°F | -1.1°F | 0.547 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 9 PM | 73.0°F | 73° to 74° | 54.4% | 100¢ | -45.6% | 73°F | -0.0°F | 0.335 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 8 PM | 73.5°F | 73° to 74° | 55.1% | 100¢ | -44.9% | 73°F | -0.5°F | 0.334 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 7 PM | 73.0°F | 73° to 74° | 68.8% | 100¢ | -31.2% | 73°F | -0.0°F | 0.176 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 6 PM | 73.0°F | 73° to 74° | 77.7% | 100¢ | -22.3% | 73°F | -0.0°F | 0.096 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 5 PM | 75.2°F | 75° to 76° | 45.9% | 1¢ | +44.9% | 73°F | -2.2°F | 0.754 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 4 PM | 74.8°F | 75° to 76° | 46.0% | 1¢ | +45.0% | 73°F | -1.8°F | 0.627 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 3 PM | 73.9°F | 73° to 74° | 57.9% | 100¢ | -42.1% | 73°F | -0.9°F | 0.315 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 2 PM | 74.0°F | 73° to 74° | 51.7% | 100¢ | -48.3% | 73°F | -1.0°F | 0.395 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 1 PM | 74.0°F | 73° to 74° | 44.9% | 100¢ | -55.1% | 73°F | -1.0°F | 0.475 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 11 AM | 73.5°F | 73° to 74° | 35.9% | 87¢ | -51.1% | 73°F | -0.5°F | 0.556 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 10 AM | 73.7°F | 73° to 74° | 31.0% | 74¢ | -43.0% | 73°F | -0.7°F | 0.647 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 9 AM | 73.6°F | 73° to 74° | 23.7% | 65¢ | -41.3% | 73°F | -0.6°F | 0.734 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 8 AM | 72.9°F | 73° to 74° | 21.0% | 75¢ | -54.0% | 73°F | +0.1°F | 0.752 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 7 AM | 73.9°F | 77° or above | 24.4% | 2¢ | +22.4% | 73°F | -0.9°F | 0.765 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 6 AM | 74.3°F | 77° or above | 27.6% | 2¢ | +25.6% | 73°F | -1.3°F | 0.783 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 5 AM | 74.3°F | 77° or above | 27.6% | 2¢ | +25.6% | 73°F | -1.3°F | 0.783 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 4 AM | 74.3°F | 77° or above | 27.7% | 2¢ | +25.7% | 73°F | -1.3°F | 0.782 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 3 AM | 74.2°F | 77° or above | 27.2% | 2¢ | +25.2% | 73°F | -1.2°F | 0.780 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 2 AM | 72.9°F | 73° to 74° | 36.9% | 66¢ | -29.1% | 73°F | +0.1°F | 0.533 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 1 AM | 69.0°F | 68° or below | 41.3% | 1¢ | +40.3% | 73°F | +4.0°F | 1.183 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 11 PM | 73.3°F | 73° to 74° | 49.9% | 100¢ | -50.1% | 73°F | -0.3°F | 0.395 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 10 PM | 75.5°F | 77° or above | 39.3% | 1¢ | +38.3% | 73°F | -2.5°F | 0.822 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 9 PM | 76.2°F | 77° or above | 48.2% | 1¢ | +47.2% | 73°F | -3.2°F | 1.008 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 8 PM | 76.5°F | 77° or above | 50.6% | 1¢ | +49.6% | 73°F | -3.5°F | 1.108 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 7 PM | 74.5°F | 73° to 74° | 43.7% | 100¢ | -56.3% | 73°F | -1.5°F | 0.519 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 6 PM | 74.8°F | 75° to 76° | 50.1% | 1¢ | +49.1% | 73°F | -1.8°F | 0.641 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 5 PM | 75.9°F | 75° to 76° | 43.4% | 1¢ | +42.4% | 73°F | -2.9°F | 1.004 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 4 PM | 74.8°F | 75° to 76° | 45.9% | 1¢ | +44.9% | 73°F | -1.8°F | 0.633 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 3 PM | 74.3°F | 73° to 74° | 49.2% | 100¢ | -50.8% | 73°F | -1.3°F | 0.443 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 2 PM | 73.2°F | 73° to 74° | 66.2% | 100¢ | -33.8% | 73°F | -0.2°F | 0.204 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 1 PM | 73.6°F | 73° to 74° | 50.2% | 97¢ | -46.8% | 73°F | -0.6°F | 0.395 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 12 PM | 73.0°F | 73° to 74° | 41.0% | 81¢ | -40.0% | 73°F | -0.0°F | 0.475 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 11 AM | 73.3°F | 73° to 74° | 32.1% | 84¢ | -51.9% | 73°F | -0.3°F | 0.620 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 10 AM | 73.8°F | 73° to 74° | 24.0% | 59¢ | -35.0% | 73°F | -0.8°F | 0.732 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 9 AM | 73.9°F | 77° or above | 24.1% | 3¢ | +21.1% | 73°F | -0.9°F | 0.756 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 8 AM | 74.0°F | 77° or above | 24.9% | 2¢ | +22.9% | 73°F | -1.0°F | 0.766 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 7 AM | 73.8°F | 77° or above | 23.6% | 2¢ | +21.6% | 73°F | -0.8°F | 0.764 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 6 AM | 74.0°F | 77° or above | 25.5% | 2¢ | +23.5% | 73°F | -1.0°F | 0.774 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 5 AM | 74.0°F | 77° or above | 25.1% | 2¢ | +23.1% | 73°F | -1.0°F | 0.771 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 4 AM | 74.0°F | 77° or above | 25.1% | 2¢ | +23.1% | 73°F | -1.0°F | 0.771 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 3 AM | 74.0°F | 77° or above | 25.1% | 3¢ | +22.1% | 73°F | -1.0°F | 0.771 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 2 AM | 73.2°F | 73° to 74° | 38.0% | 68¢ | -30.0% | 73°F | -0.2°F | 0.512 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 1 AM | 69.0°F | 68° or below | 41.1% | 1¢ | +40.1% | 73°F | +4.0°F | 1.180 | Inputs |