Prediction data
New York City · KNYC hourly model runs, with Kalshi settlement results added when available.
| Date | Run time (local) | Forecast | Most likely bucket | Model | Ask | Edge | Actual | Error | Brier | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | 5 AM | 59.4°F | 60° or below | 73.8% | 71¢ | +2.8% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-08 | 4 AM | 59.3°F | 60° or below | 76.0% | 73¢ | +3.0% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-08 | 3 AM | 59.3°F | 60° or below | 77.7% | 73¢ | +4.7% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-08 | 2 AM | 62.1°F | 61° to 62° | 36.5% | 32¢ | +4.5% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-08 | 1 AM | 60.2°F | 60° or below | 59.2% | 67¢ | -7.8% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 11 PM | 63.2°F | 63° to 64° | 54.6% | 1¢ | +53.6% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 10 PM | 62.9°F | 63° to 64° | 53.0% | 1¢ | +52.0% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 9 PM | 62.8°F | 63° to 64° | 52.7% | 1¢ | +51.7% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 8 PM | 62.7°F | 63° to 64° | 52.6% | 1¢ | +51.6% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 7 PM | 61.4°F | 61° to 62° | 87.0% | 100¢ | -13.0% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 6 PM | 61.6°F | 61° to 62° | 81.1% | 100¢ | -18.9% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 5 PM | 61.3°F | 61° to 62° | 85.2% | 100¢ | -14.8% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 4 PM | 61.2°F | 61° to 62° | 86.0% | 100¢ | -14.0% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 3 PM | 61.0°F | 61° to 62° | 86.0% | 98¢ | -12.0% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 2 PM | 61.0°F | 61° to 62° | 83.4% | 98¢ | -14.6% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 1 PM | 61.0°F | 61° to 62° | 82.3% | 99¢ | -16.7% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 11 AM | 62.5°F | 61° to 62° | 43.5% | 92¢ | -48.5% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 9 AM | 62.4°F | 61° to 62° | 41.7% | 57¢ | -15.3% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 8 AM | 62.3°F | 61° to 62° | 42.1% | 53¢ | -10.9% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 7 AM | 62.2°F | 61° to 62° | 43.3% | 56¢ | -12.7% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 6 AM | 62.1°F | 61° to 62° | 43.6% | 49¢ | -5.4% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 5 AM | 62.2°F | 61° to 62° | 42.7% | 47¢ | -4.3% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 4 AM | 62.3°F | 61° to 62° | 41.4% | 47¢ | -5.6% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 3 AM | 62.1°F | 61° to 62° | 46.6% | 45¢ | +1.6% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 2 AM | 62.3°F | 61° to 62° | 38.6% | 41¢ | -2.4% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-07 | 1 AM | 60.2°F | 61° to 62° | 52.7% | 46¢ | +6.7% | Pending | — | — | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 11 PM | 71.6°F | 71° to 72° | 58.3% | 1¢ | +57.3% | 70°F | -1.6°F | 1.099 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 10 PM | 71.9°F | 71° to 72° | 56.3% | 1¢ | +55.3% | 70°F | -1.9°F | 1.208 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 9 PM | 72.4°F | 71° to 72° | 47.1% | 1¢ | +46.1% | 70°F | -2.4°F | 1.327 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 8 PM | 72.6°F | 73° to 74° | 50.5% | 1¢ | +49.5% | 70°F | -2.6°F | 1.400 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 7 PM | 71.0°F | 71° to 72° | 69.2% | 1¢ | +68.2% | 70°F | -1.0°F | 1.032 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 6 PM | 70.0°F | 69° to 70° | 58.6% | 100¢ | -41.4% | 70°F | +0.0°F | 0.339 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 5 PM | 70.0°F | 69° to 70° | 55.8% | 100¢ | -44.2% | 70°F | +0.0°F | 0.383 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 4 PM | 70.0°F | 69° to 70° | 54.4% | 100¢ | -45.6% | 70°F | +0.0°F | 0.405 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 3 PM | 70.0°F | 69° to 70° | 51.5% | 90¢ | -38.5% | 70°F | +0.0°F | 0.452 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 2 PM | 70.0°F | 71° to 72° | 48.7% | 10¢ | +38.7% | 70°F | +0.0°F | 0.507 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 1 PM | 70.0°F | 71° to 72° | 50.7% | 11¢ | +39.7% | 70°F | +0.0°F | 0.595 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 12 PM | 70.0°F | 71° to 72° | 51.0% | 10¢ | +41.0% | 70°F | +0.0°F | 0.636 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 11 AM | 70.0°F | 71° to 72° | 50.9% | 11¢ | +39.9% | 70°F | +0.0°F | 0.654 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 9 AM | 70.0°F | 71° to 72° | 50.9% | 11¢ | +39.9% | 70°F | +0.0°F | 0.643 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 8 AM | 70.0°F | 71° to 72° | 50.9% | 15¢ | +35.9% | 70°F | +0.0°F | 0.646 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 7 AM | 70.0°F | 71° to 72° | 50.8% | 13¢ | +37.8% | 70°F | +0.0°F | 0.657 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 6 AM | 69.1°F | 69° to 70° | 66.6% | 88¢ | -21.4% | 70°F | +0.9°F | 0.199 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 5 AM | 69.1°F | 69° to 70° | 66.2% | 90¢ | -23.8% | 70°F | +0.9°F | 0.203 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 4 AM | 69.1°F | 69° to 70° | 66.5% | 88¢ | -21.5% | 70°F | +0.9°F | 0.199 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 3 AM | 69.1°F | 69° to 70° | 71.5% | 90¢ | -18.5% | 70°F | +0.9°F | 0.150 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 2 AM | 69.2°F | 69° to 70° | 59.1% | 86¢ | -26.9% | 70°F | +0.8°F | 0.281 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-06 | 1 AM | 69.1°F | 69° to 70° | 79.2% | 94¢ | -14.8% | 70°F | +0.9°F | 0.083 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 11 PM | 72.0°F | 72° to 73° | 80.2% | 99¢ | -18.8% | 72°F | +0.0°F | 0.076 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 10 PM | 72.2°F | 72° to 73° | 77.4% | 98¢ | -20.6% | 72°F | -0.2°F | 0.099 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 9 PM | 72.1°F | 72° to 73° | 81.4% | 99¢ | -17.6% | 72°F | -0.1°F | 0.068 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 8 PM | 72.1°F | 72° to 73° | 81.4% | 100¢ | -18.6% | 72°F | -0.1°F | 0.068 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 7 PM | 72.7°F | 72° to 73° | 80.2% | 100¢ | -19.8% | 72°F | -0.7°F | 0.078 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 6 PM | 71.7°F | 72° to 73° | 61.9% | 32¢ | +29.9% | 72°F | +0.3°F | 0.270 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 5 PM | 71.1°F | 70° to 71° | 51.0% | 99¢ | -48.0% | 72°F | +0.9°F | 0.534 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 4 PM | 71.6°F | 72° to 73° | 59.2% | 12¢ | +47.2% | 72°F | +0.4°F | 0.303 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 3 PM | 71.1°F | 70° to 71° | 49.5% | 88¢ | -38.5% | 72°F | +0.9°F | 0.514 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 2 PM | 71.1°F | 72° to 73° | 50.1% | 37¢ | +13.1% | 72°F | +0.9°F | 0.464 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 1 PM | 71.2°F | 72° to 73° | 52.4% | 48¢ | +4.4% | 72°F | +0.8°F | 0.386 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 12 PM | 71.3°F | 72° to 73° | 52.8% | 73¢ | -20.2% | 72°F | +0.7°F | 0.354 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 11 AM | 71.7°F | 72° to 73° | 52.9% | 73¢ | -20.1% | 72°F | +0.3°F | 0.332 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 10 AM | 71.2°F | 70° to 71° | 49.4% | 17¢ | +32.4% | 72°F | +0.8°F | 0.606 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 9 AM | 71.2°F | 70° to 71° | 42.1% | 31¢ | +11.1% | 72°F | +0.8°F | 0.620 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 8 AM | 71.3°F | 70° to 71° | 40.0% | 53¢ | -13.0% | 72°F | +0.7°F | 0.616 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 7 AM | 71.4°F | 70° to 71° | 38.4% | 47¢ | -8.6% | 72°F | +0.6°F | 0.571 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 6 AM | 71.3°F | 70° to 71° | 38.9% | 42¢ | -3.1% | 72°F | +0.7°F | 0.603 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 5 AM | 71.3°F | 70° to 71° | 39.3% | 41¢ | -1.7% | 72°F | +0.7°F | 0.622 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 4 AM | 71.5°F | 72° to 73° | 37.3% | 22¢ | +15.3% | 72°F | +0.5°F | 0.561 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 3 AM | 71.2°F | 70° to 71° | 43.2% | 42¢ | +1.2% | 72°F | +0.8°F | 0.622 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 2 AM | 70.1°F | 70° to 71° | 46.0% | 41¢ | +5.0% | 72°F | +1.9°F | 1.033 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-05 | 1 AM | 70.7°F | 70° to 71° | 38.1% | 42¢ | -3.9% | 72°F | +1.3°F | 0.765 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 11 PM | 72.0°F | 72° to 73° | 79.8% | 100¢ | -20.2% | 72°F | +0.0°F | 0.079 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 10 PM | 72.3°F | 72° to 73° | 76.5% | 100¢ | -23.5% | 72°F | -0.3°F | 0.107 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 9 PM | 73.5°F | 72° to 73° | 47.7% | 100¢ | -52.3% | 72°F | -1.5°F | 0.502 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 8 PM | 75.0°F | 74° to 75° | 61.1% | 1¢ | +60.1% | 72°F | -3.0°F | 1.315 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 7 PM | 73.9°F | 74° to 75° | 62.1% | 1¢ | +61.1% | 72°F | -1.9°F | 0.823 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 6 PM | 72.3°F | 72° to 73° | 72.6% | 100¢ | -27.4% | 72°F | -0.3°F | 0.116 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 5 PM | 71.1°F | 70° to 71° | 53.6% | 1¢ | +52.6% | 72°F | +0.9°F | 0.586 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 4 PM | 71.1°F | 70° to 71° | 52.5% | 1¢ | +51.5% | 72°F | +0.9°F | 0.565 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 3 PM | 71.1°F | 70° to 71° | 49.5% | 82¢ | -32.5% | 72°F | +0.9°F | 0.514 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 2 PM | 71.1°F | 72° to 73° | 50.1% | 32¢ | +18.1% | 72°F | +0.9°F | 0.464 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 1 PM | 73.1°F | 72° to 73° | 47.8% | 75¢ | -27.2% | 72°F | -1.1°F | 0.417 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 12 PM | 73.2°F | 72° to 73° | 42.0% | 72¢ | -30.0% | 72°F | -1.2°F | 0.485 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 11 AM | 73.3°F | 72° to 73° | 40.1% | 52¢ | -11.9% | 72°F | -1.3°F | 0.510 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 10 AM | 73.3°F | 72° to 73° | 40.2% | 18¢ | +22.2% | 72°F | -1.3°F | 0.512 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 9 AM | 73.7°F | 74° to 75° | 40.7% | 2¢ | +38.7% | 72°F | -1.7°F | 0.594 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 8 AM | 73.8°F | 74° to 75° | 41.6% | 4¢ | +37.6% | 72°F | -1.8°F | 0.621 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 6 AM | 72.3°F | 72° to 73° | 44.1% | 24¢ | +20.1% | 72°F | -0.3°F | 0.432 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-04 | 1 AM | 70.7°F | 70° to 71° | 55.0% | 57¢ | -2.0% | 72°F | +1.3°F | 0.892 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 11 PM | 68.4°F | 68° to 69° | 70.4% | 100¢ | -29.6% | 68°F | -0.4°F | 0.165 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 10 PM | 68.6°F | 68° to 69° | 69.5% | 100¢ | -30.5% | 68°F | -0.6°F | 0.177 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 9 PM | 68.0°F | 68° to 69° | 84.4% | 100¢ | -15.6% | 68°F | +0.0°F | 0.048 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 8 PM | 68.0°F | 68° to 69° | 88.9% | 100¢ | -11.1% | 68°F | +0.0°F | 0.025 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 6 PM | 67.9°F | 68° to 69° | 66.3% | 100¢ | -33.7% | 68°F | +0.1°F | 0.204 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 5 PM | 69.6°F | 70° to 71° | 50.5% | 1¢ | +49.5% | 68°F | -1.6°F | 0.549 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 4 PM | 70.3°F | 70° to 71° | 67.2% | 1¢ | +66.2% | 68°F | -2.3°F | 1.091 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 3 PM | 70.0°F | 70° to 71° | 59.7% | 4¢ | +55.7% | 68°F | -2.0°F | 0.847 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 2 PM | 70.4°F | 70° to 71° | 59.1% | 4¢ | +55.1% | 68°F | -2.4°F | 0.981 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 1 PM | 70.6°F | 70° to 71° | 51.2% | 6¢ | +45.2% | 68°F | -2.6°F | 0.947 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 12 PM | 71.0°F | 70° to 71° | 44.7% | 5¢ | +39.7% | 68°F | -3.0°F | 1.026 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 11 AM | 71.2°F | 70° to 71° | 42.0% | 5¢ | +37.0% | 68°F | -3.2°F | 1.029 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 10 AM | 71.1°F | 70° to 71° | 42.2% | 8¢ | +34.2% | 68°F | -3.1°F | 1.007 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 9 AM | 72.0°F | 72° to 73° | 43.0% | 2¢ | +41.0% | 68°F | -4.0°F | 1.190 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 7 AM | 72.1°F | 72° to 73° | 43.7% | 2¢ | +41.7% | 68°F | -4.1°F | 1.207 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 6 AM | 72.0°F | 72° to 73° | 42.2% | 2¢ | +40.2% | 68°F | -4.0°F | 1.177 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 5 AM | 72.0°F | 72° to 73° | 42.0% | 2¢ | +40.0% | 68°F | -4.0°F | 1.173 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 4 AM | 72.3°F | 72° to 73° | 44.0% | 2¢ | +42.0% | 68°F | -4.3°F | 1.231 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 3 AM | 72.1°F | 72° to 73° | 45.5% | 2¢ | +43.5% | 68°F | -4.1°F | 1.236 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 2 AM | 69.5°F | 68° to 69° | 34.5% | 62¢ | -27.5% | 68°F | -1.5°F | 0.582 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-03 | 1 AM | 67.4°F | 66° to 67° | 46.6% | 30¢ | +16.6% | 68°F | +0.6°F | 0.581 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 11 PM | 67.0°F | 67° to 68° | 58.4% | 1¢ | +57.4% | 66°F | -1.0°F | 0.913 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 10 PM | 66.7°F | 67° to 68° | 58.0% | 1¢ | +57.0% | 66°F | -0.7°F | 0.804 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 9 PM | 67.2°F | 67° to 68° | 63.2% | 1¢ | +62.2% | 66°F | -1.2°F | 1.046 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 8 PM | 67.8°F | 67° to 68° | 65.1% | 1¢ | +64.1% | 66°F | -1.8°F | 1.309 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 7 PM | 67.0°F | 67° to 68° | 69.2% | 1¢ | +68.2% | 66°F | -1.0°F | 1.042 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 6 PM | 64.9°F | 65° to 66° | 93.9% | 100¢ | -6.1% | 66°F | +1.1°F | 0.007 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 5 PM | 64.9°F | 65° to 66° | 92.2% | 100¢ | -7.8% | 66°F | +1.1°F | 0.012 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 4 PM | 65.0°F | 65° to 66° | 89.5% | 99¢ | -9.5% | 66°F | +1.0°F | 0.022 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 3 PM | 64.9°F | 65° to 66° | 88.3% | 96¢ | -7.7% | 66°F | +1.1°F | 0.027 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 1 PM | 65.7°F | 65° to 66° | 63.1% | 92¢ | -28.9% | 66°F | +0.3°F | 0.249 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 12 PM | 65.3°F | 65° to 66° | 48.4% | 86¢ | -37.6% | 66°F | +0.7°F | 0.393 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 11 AM | 64.9°F | 65° to 66° | 42.9% | 88¢ | -45.1% | 66°F | +1.1°F | 0.507 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 10 AM | 65.0°F | 65° to 66° | 44.2% | 72¢ | -27.8% | 66°F | +1.0°F | 0.485 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 9 AM | 65.3°F | 65° to 66° | 44.7% | 73¢ | -28.3% | 66°F | +0.7°F | 0.453 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 8 AM | 65.4°F | 65° to 66° | 45.0% | 74¢ | -29.0% | 66°F | +0.6°F | 0.440 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 6 AM | 65.4°F | 65° to 66° | 43.9% | 69¢ | -25.1% | 66°F | +0.6°F | 0.455 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 5 AM | 65.5°F | 65° to 66° | 43.7% | 71¢ | -27.3% | 66°F | +0.5°F | 0.455 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 4 AM | 65.7°F | 65° to 66° | 43.9% | 70¢ | -26.1% | 66°F | +0.3°F | 0.447 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 3 AM | 65.6°F | 65° to 66° | 46.5% | 65¢ | -18.5% | 66°F | +0.4°F | 0.412 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 2 AM | 66.9°F | 67° to 68° | 37.0% | 11¢ | +26.0% | 66°F | -0.9°F | 0.671 | Inputs |
| 2026-11-02 | 1 AM | 63.8°F | 64° or below | 69.3% | 28¢ | +41.3% | 66°F | +2.2°F | 0.991 | Inputs |