Las Vegas daily high

Today’s probability estimate for KLAS.

TickerKXHIGHTLV — Las Vegas

NWS + AviationWeather + Kalshi · KLASStandard METAR confirmed high 93.0°F · final market label from Kalshi / The Weather Company

Production · cutoff 9:56 PM UTC-07:00

Today’s forecast · Sep 23, 2026

Latest persisted model result; refreshing this page does not fetch data or run the model.

PRODUCTION

Latest model runSep 23, 10:06:41 PM UTC-07:00

Source data generation timeSep 23, 9:56 PM UTC-07:00

Model version0.3.2

Next automatic runSep 23, 11:05 PM PT

Predicted daily high95.0°F ± 2.3°F

Most likely bucket95° to 96° · 38%

Model 0.3.2 · ACTIVE calibration (same-hour settled n=27) · confirmed METAR high 93.0°F (standard metar 6h max) · HFMETAR provisional high 93.2°F, monitor only · NWS baseline 93.0°F · raw nowcast 96.9°F · learned residual -1.9°F · seasonal context 92.5°F (n=75)

Temperature bucket	Model probability	Kalshi YES ask	Estimated edge
90° or below	0.0%	1¢	-1.0%
91° to 92°	0.0%	1¢	-1.0%
93° to 94°	31.5%	100¢	-68.5%
95° to 96°	38.5%	1¢	+37.5%
97° to 98°	22.7%	1¢	+21.7%
99° or above	7.4%	1¢	+6.4%

Telegram daily forecast

Every day at 2:30 PM PT, send the Forecast table’s Temperature bucket, Model probability and Kalshi YES ask.

14:30 PT

Uses the persisted forecast shown above and the existing administrator Telegram Bot / Chat ID. A stale target date is never sent. This is read-only model output, not an order or trade instruction.

Open administrator Telegram settings

Model input data

Complete persisted inputs for Las Vegas · KLAS. Missing observations are shown as —.

7-day observed high overview

Click a date to open its complete input timeline.

KLAS

Input	Aug 29Sat	Aug 30Sun	Aug 31Mon	Sep 1Tue	Sep 2Wed	Sep 3Thu	Sep 4Fri
Observed high used	102.9°F	100.0°F	100.0°F	96.1°F	95.0°F	95.0°F	96.1°F
Hourly METAR temperature	102.9°F	100.0°F	100.0°F	96.1°F	95.0°F	95.0°F	96.1°F
5-min HFMETAR peakPROVISIONAL	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
6-hour maxTCONFIRMED	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Sep 4 · complete input timeline

Source observation time in Las Vegas local time.

No persisted input observations for this date.

Hourly METAR temperature5-min Temp T6-hour maxT

Hourly raw observations23

Observed at	Temperature	Source
2026-09-04 00:56:00-07:00	81.0°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 01:56:00-07:00	80.1°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 02:56:00-07:00	78.1°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 03:56:00-07:00	78.1°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 04:56:00-07:00	77.0°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 05:56:00-07:00	75.9°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 06:56:00-07:00	75.9°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 07:56:00-07:00	78.1°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 08:56:00-07:00	81.0°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 09:56:00-07:00	84.0°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 10:56:00-07:00	88.0°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 11:56:00-07:00	91.0°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 12:56:00-07:00	91.9°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 13:56:00-07:00	95.0°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 14:56:00-07:00	96.1°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 15:56:00-07:00	96.1°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 16:56:00-07:00	96.1°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 17:56:00-07:00	93.9°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 18:56:00-07:00	91.0°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 19:56:00-07:00	89.1°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 20:56:00-07:00	88.0°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 21:56:00-07:00	84.9°F	AviationWeather METAR
2026-09-04 22:56:00-07:00	84.0°F	AviationWeather METAR

5-minute raw observations0

Observed at	Temperature
—

6-hour max reports0

Reported at	Period	Maximum
—